Where does your skin cancer risk tier sit?
A self-assessment screening aid for melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer. Seven scored questions produce a validated melanoma risk tier — not a diagnosis or a precise probability — and a transparent risk-factor summary covers basal and squamous cell cancers. About 3 minutes; everything stays in your browser.
Melanoma risk score
The validated Williams self-assessed melanoma risk model. Answer all seven items for a valid score.
Other melanoma considerations
These are recognised risk factors that the validated score deliberately leaves out. They don't change the number — they can raise the recommended level of monitoring.
Immunosuppression / organ transplant also raises melanoma risk — record it in the skin-cancer section below and it will be picked up here too.
Non-melanoma skin cancer (BCC / SCC)
There is no equally-validated self-assessment number for non-melanoma skin cancer, so this is a transparent risk-factor summary rather than a scored index. Age and sex are taken from Part A.
How this is scored
Part A is the Williams self-assessed melanoma risk model: seven self-reported factors, each worth fixed points, summed to a 0–67 score. Points are exactly as published; nothing here is reweighted.
| Item | Options · points | Range |
|---|---|---|
| Sex | Female = 0 · Male = 7 | 0–7 |
| Age | 35–44 = 0 · 45–54 = 5 · 55–64 = 8 · 65–74 = 11 (under 35 → 0, 75+ → 11; flagged as outside the validated range) | 0–11 |
| Blistering sunburns (ages 2–18) | None = 0 · 1–4 = 1 · 5–9 = 4 · 10 or more = 7 | 0–7 |
| Natural hair colour at age 15 | Dark brown / black = 0 · Light brown = 4 · Blond = 5 · Red = 8 | 0–8 |
| Freckle density on arms (before age 20) | None = 0 · Few = 4 · Several = 6 · A lot = 10 | 0–10 |
| Raised moles on both arms | None = 0 · 1 = 3 · 2 = 5 · 3 or more = 11 | 0–11 |
| Prior non-melanoma skin cancer | No = 0 · Yes = 13 | 0–13 |
| Maximum total | 67 | |
| Score | Tier | Meaning in the source study |
|---|---|---|
| < 25 | Average risk | Below the lowest high-risk threshold (~lower 80%) |
| 25–27 | Increased risk | Top 20% of risk; ≈5× the melanoma rate of those below |
| 28–33 | High risk | Top 15% (held ~half of all melanomas); ≥30 also meets the top-10% threshold |
| ≥ 34 | Very high risk | Top 5%; ~7× the melanoma rate of those below |
Parts B and C are not scored. Part B lists recognised melanoma risk factors the model deliberately leaves out; they raise the suggested monitoring, not the number. Part C is a transparent qualitative tally of established BCC/SCC factors (immunosuppression +3, 3+ prior BCC/SCC +3, 1–2 prior +2, actinic keratoses +2, +1 each for extensive sun, fair skin, radiotherapy, age ≥65, male sex; 0 = low, 1–2 = some, 3–4 = elevated, ≥5 = high) — and immunosuppression always lifts the impression to at least Elevated.
Williams LH, Shors AR, Barlow WE, Solomon C, White E. Identifying persons at highest risk of melanoma using self-assessed risk factors. J Clin Exp Dermatol Res 2011;2(6):1000129. doi:10.4172/2155-9554.1000129. Validated in primary care: Usher-Smith JA et al., Br J Dermatol 2017;176(4):939–948; Smit AK et al. (Australian primary care), 2020.
Complete the seven scored questions to see the risk tier and what it means.
- No additional non-melanoma risk factors recorded.
These are general suggestions. The risk model does not prescribe screening intervals — the right schedule is set by a clinician based on your full picture.
Educational, not medical advice. The numeric melanoma score is validated for self-assessment in light-skinned adults aged 35–74; it does not replace a clinician's examination. The non-melanoma section is a qualitative summary of established BCC/SCC risk factors, not a validated score. See a dermatologist promptly about any new, changing, or non-healing skin lesion regardless of the score above.
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How the risk tier works
The scored half of this tool is the Williams self-assessed melanoma risk model (Williams et al., 2011), built and validated on a Washington State case–control study of 386 melanoma cases and 727 controls (validation AUC 0.70), and later validated in primary care. Seven self-reported factors — sex, age, blistering childhood sunburns, natural hair color at 15, arm freckling before 20, raised arm moles, and prior non-melanoma skin cancer — sum to a 0–67 score. The tiers use the model's own nested high-risk cut-offs: scores of ≥25, ≥28, ≥30, and ≥34 mark the top 20%, 15%, 10%, and 5% of risk. In the source study, people above a cut-off had roughly 5–7× the melanoma rate of those below it, and the top 15% contained about half of all melanomas. The model is validated in light-skinned adults aged 35–74 — outside that range the tool clamps the age points to the nearest validated band and flags the result so you read the tier loosely.
The model deliberately leaves out family history, atypical moles, immunosuppression, tanning-bed use, and Fitzpatrick phototype — so the tool records those separately and uses them to adjust the advice rather than the number, alongside a transparent (unscored) risk-factor summary for basal and squamous cell cancers drawn from our catalog's clinical reference material. Whatever tier you land in, the follow-through is the same trio: monthly self-exams using the ABCDE Check, a photographed baseline in the Mole Map so change is detectable, and daily sun protection matched to your phototype via the Sun Safety tool — which this page reads from, prefilling the fair-skin question if you've taken that quiz. Any new, changing, bleeding, or non-healing spot needs a clinician promptly, whatever the tier says.
Common questions
Is this my probability of getting skin cancer?
No — and that distinction matters. The tool returns a risk tier, not a percentage chance and not a diagnosis: it tells you which slice of the screened population your risk-factor profile falls into (average, top 20%, top 15%, or top 5%), based on the validated Williams melanoma model. A high tier means surveillance deserves more attention, not that cancer is expected — and a low tier never overrules a suspicious spot.
What is the Williams melanoma risk score?
It is a self-assessment model published by Williams and colleagues in 2011, built on a Washington State case–control study and later validated in primary care. Seven self-reported factors — sex, age, blistering childhood sunburns, natural hair color at 15, arm freckling before 20, raised arm moles, and prior non-melanoma skin cancer — each carry fixed points that sum to a 0–67 score. This tool uses the published points and cut-offs exactly as validated; nothing is reweighted.
Why doesn’t ticking family history change my number?
Because the validated score deliberately leaves it out — along with atypical moles, immunosuppression, and tanning-bed use — and adding unvalidated points would break the model’s published performance. Instead, those factors adjust the advice: a personal history of melanoma, immunosuppression, or multiple atypical moles flags that regular dermatologist surveillance is usually warranted regardless of the score.
How often should I be checking my skin?
A monthly self-exam is the standard advice for every tier — the ABCDE Check on this site walks you through what to look for, and the Mole Map tool helps you photograph a baseline so change is actually detectable. Professional skin-check frequency is different: the model does not prescribe an interval, so the right schedule is set by a clinician who can see your whole picture, often around annually for higher-risk adults.
Where do my answers end up?
In your own browser’s local storage on this device — nothing is uploaded to DermApproved or anywhere else. The tool keeps only your latest assessment (date, tier, and answers), so re-taking it replaces the previous result. Browsers can erase local storage without warning, so if the result is worth keeping, copy the summary or back up from My Library.